What Are Your Chances Of Winning At Craps
The Odds: Numbers
- Craps odds of winning for this wager type depends on the number the dice shows. For 2 and 12 it’s 2.77%, while the payouts are 2 to 1 and 3 to 1. For 3, 4, 9, 10 and 11 the probability is 3.88%. In this case you’ll get even money.
- Because you're rolling two dice, your chances of rolling a specific number in craps are determined by the number of die combinations that can add up to that number. For example, 2 can only be rolled with two 1s, but 4 can be rolled with either a 1 and a 3 or two 2s. That means you have twice the chance of rolling a 3 as you do a 2.
- The Field bet is easy. It’s a one-roll bet so it’s over quickly. You don’t have to do any math in your head to calculate how much odds to put down or whether the bet multiple is $5 or $6. You don’t have worry about bridging or heeling your Don’t Pass odds. You don’t have to think or worry about anything.
Here is an overview of craps bets with medium odds that you can make. Have a 16.7% chance of winning an Any 7 bet, with a payout of 4/1. This gives the house a substantial edge of 16.9%. This is quite high compared to some of the bets we’ve seen above, yet still a solid choice if you’re chasing more slightly more daring bets. To increase your chances of winning, and before you put your hard earned money down on the table, you should at least have a rudimentary knowledge of the odds, payouts and house edge for each of the bets on the table. Before we get into the details, let’s get a couple of things out of the way first. The casino always wins in the long run.
Since craps is a game of chance, you need to understand why you have a greater or lesser chance of rolling different numbers. Because you're rolling two dice, your chances of rolling a specific number in craps are determined by the number of die combinations that can add up to that number. For example, 2 can only be rolled with two 1s, but 4 can be rolled with either a 1 and a 3 or two 2s. That means you have twice the chance of rolling a 3 as you do a 2. Because the 7 has the greatest number of combinations (six), it is the number that has the potential to come up most often, which is why 7 is the magic number in craps.
There are 36 possible number combinations in craps. Here is a chart showing the possible combinations for each number using two die.
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From the chart, you can see that the most likely number you'll roll is a 7, followed by the 6 and the 8, then 5 and 9, then 4 and 10, then 3 and 11, and finally (and least likely) the 2 and the 12. This means you'll roll a 7 once out of every six rolls, a 6 or an 8 once out of every 7 to 8 rolls, and so on.
Odds for Each Number
By looking at the possible combinations, the 'true odds' for each number can be established. Knowing the odds in craps is good so you have a feel for the likelihood of one number being rolled before another one (e.g., is the 4 going to be rolled before the 7?).
House Edge
Now, true odds are not what the casino pays you unless you're also betting 'free odds' on top of your main bet. Free odds, which is an additional wager you place with your original line bet, pay true odds so the casino's edge is reduced. (We'll talk more about free odds in Strategies the Winners Use.)
To better explain how the casino edge works, let's take the example of flipping a coin. You have a 50/50 chance of the coin landing on heads, and a 50/50 chance of it landing on tails. If that were a bet on which you were being paid true odds, you would be paid even money. The casino, however, has to have an edge in order to make a profit on the game. So, the payoff for any given bet is less than what true mathematical odds would dictate. For example, on a bet that had true odds of 1:1, you would think that if you bet $1 and win, you would be paid $1 in winnings. But in a casino, depending on the bet, you might only be paid $.96. The difference between the true odds and what they pay you is how they make money -- it's called casino odds.
Another way to better understand casino odds versus true odds is to look at the definition of the casino (or house) edge. WizardOfOdds.com defines it as, 'The ratio of the average loss to the initial bet,' going on to explain that it's based on the original wager rather than the average wager so that players can have an idea of how much they are going to lose when they place a bet. For example, by knowing that the casino has a 1.41 percent edge in craps, you can know that you'll be losing 14.1 cents for every $10 bet.
For charts of odds for all types of bets, visit the Wizard of Odds.com.
On the next page, we'll talk about types of craps bets, their odds and what the casino pays for each.
Let’s face it, as much fun as it is going to the casino and playing craps, winning at the craps table is a heck of a lot more fun than losing.
To increase your chances of winning, and before you put your hard earned money down on the table, you should at least have a rudimentary knowledge of the odds, payouts and house edge for each of the bets on the table.
Before we get into the details, let’s get a couple of things out of the way first.
- The casino always wins in the long run.
- The casino’s revenues are built on the statistical probabilities of the outcomes, payouts and house edge of each of the bets in the casino and at the craps tables over the long term. (24/7, 365 days a year).
- BUT… We’re only at the casino and at the craps table for a short period of time. (a day, weekend, week, etc.). You’re better positioned to take advantage of short term trends at the table and… sometimes you just get lucky! Advanced craps players can sometimes even flip some of the odds into their favor.
- The casino’s advantage extends beyond the house edge.
- In addition to the house edge on each bet, the casino is banking on the fact that most players at the craps tables don’t know how to play the game and don’t know the smart vs. not so smart bets on the table.
- SO… By doing what you are doing right now, learning how to play the game well and understanding the probabilities and house edge for each of the bets on the table, you’re effectively reducing the casino advantage over you. Aside from becoming an advanced player, this is your best bet for leaving the tables and the casino, a winner.
- While you’re at the tables, you’d might as well have some fun.
- While most of my play is, and your play should be, centered around the smarter bets on the table, don’t forget that you’re there to have a good time. There is nothing wrong with throwing some dollars on the ‘not so smart’ bets when you want to. I do it myself from time to time if the table is slow and I’m looking for a little more action or when I’m playing with house money. As long as you’re making an informed decision… then go for it.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get to work on getting you to be an informed gambler at the craps tables.
What Are Your Chances Of Winning At Craps Machine
Odds, Payouts, House Edge
So that you better understand the tables below, I’m going to give you a basic explanation of how the odds and payouts determine the edge that the house has over you.
Don’t worry, I wasn’t very good at math either and you don’t need to understand the formula above… I certainly don’t. All you need is the table below… it’s all figured out for you. If you’re looking for a deeper explanation there are a lot of statistics and probability websites out there to research.
- ODDS: This is the probability that an outcome will occur.
- For example, if I were to flip a coin, the probability (or ODDs) that it would come up heads is 50% or 1 out of every 2 times the coin is flipped, IN THE LONG RUN. So if I flip the coin 1000 times, it will probably come very close to 500 heads and 500 tails. (This would be 1 to 1 ODDs)
- That doesn’t mean that IN THE SHORT TERM it will come out heads every other time it’s flipped. You may get 2 heads in a row, 5 heads in a row, or maybe even 10 heads in a row, but IN THE LONG RUN you’re most likely going to get close to the same number of heads and tails outcomes.
- The SHORT TERM TRENDS are what we want to take advantage of to leave the table a winner.
- PAYOUTS:The amount the casino pays you each time your outcome occurs.
- Using the coin flip example above, imagine that you’re betting $5 on heads each time the coin is flipped. At even (or 1 to 1) ODDs, you should get paid $5 every time it comes up heads. But that’s not how it works at the casino. They have a built in ‘vig’ that pays you less than the true odds.
- So let’s imagine that at this casino, they pay you $4 every time heads is flipped. In 10 flips, if it comes up heads 9 times… you’ve won $45.
- But if you flip the coin 100 times and it comes out 50 heads and 50 tails, you just lost $100 even though you won an even amount of times.
- (100 flips at $5 = $500) (50 wins (heads) paid $4 each = $400) = ($100 loss)
- This is where the HOUSE EDGE comes in.
- HOUSE EDGE:The percentage difference between the true odds of a winning outcome and the payout for that winning outcome.
- This is how the casino always wins in the long term… by paying you less than the true probability of the outcome you bet on.
- In the coin flip example, your betting $5 on an even odds bets, but they’re only paying you $4 for every win. In this example, the house edge on this bet is a whopping 20%. (This would qualify as a ‘Not So Smart’ bet.)
Your goal is to lessen the casino’s house edge over you so you have the best chance of winning. Just focus most of your betting on the bets that have the lowest house edge.
SMART BETS
These are the bets with the lowest House Edge and give you the best chance of winning. An easy way to remember these… They are on the right and left sides of the table. Most of your betting should be focused on these bets.
NOT SO SMART BETS
These are the bets that give the casino the highest House Edge and their greatest advantage over you. Again, there is nothing wrong with betting on any of these as long as you’re making an informed decision on what you’re betting on.
These bets are typically located in the center of the table in front of the stickman.
You are now a much more educated gambler and much better equipped to win at the craps table and against the casino.
Feel free to leave any comments that would be helpful to readers learning about odds, payouts and house edge.
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In the meantime…
What Are Your Chances Of Winning At Craps Games
BEST OF LUCK AT THE CASINOS!!!